The China in Europe Research Network (CHERN) is pleased to invite you to the next instalment of our CHERN China-Russia Talks series, a set of public roundtables exploring how the Russia-China partnership is evolving across different regions of the world.
The Day After a Ceasefire: China, Russia and the Future of Ukraine
Monday, 7 December 2026
11:00–12:15 (Brussels time)
A ceasefire in Ukraine is not yet in sight, but diplomacy has regained momentum. In early September 2026, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, reviving trilateral talks after earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva stalled over territorial issues. New trilateral negotiations are scheduled for October, though major gaps on core demands remain unresolved.
Whatever form a ceasefire eventually takes, it will reshape one of the most consequential partnerships of our time. Since 2022, the war has pushed Russia into deep economic and technological dependence on China, while Beijing has balanced its support for Moscow against its interests in Europe and its desire to avoid secondary sanctions. The “day after” will test whether the China-Russia relationship is a strategic alignment or a wartime marriage of convenience.
This roundtable asks: Will a ceasefire consolidate the China-Russia partnership, or expose its underlying divergences?
Because the shape of any agreement remains uncertain, the discussion will be structured around three plausible scenarios:
- The frozen conflict: Fighting stops along the current line of contact without robust security guarantees or a political settlement. Sanctions largely remain in place, and Russia stays dependent on China.
- The negotiated deal: A US-brokered agreement includes (European) security guarantees for Ukraine and a phased easing of sanctions on Russia. Moscow partially regains access to Western markets, which could reduce China’s leverage.
- The fragile pause: A ceasefire holds on paper but mainly gives Russia time to rearm and regroup, with a high risk of renewed hostilities. Chinese dual-use supplies remain central to Russia’s military reconstitution.
Questions to discuss include: Will Chinese companies seek a role in rebuilding Ukraine, and how would Kyiv and Brussels respond? Would Beijing invest in Russian-occupied territories, or would sanctions risks and questions of legitimacy keep it out? Could China seek a role as guarantor, observer or even peacekeeping contributor, and what would that mean for Ukraine and Europe? Russia seeks to divide Europe, while China wants to repair its relations with the EU. Is this a genuine divergence, or European wishful thinking? How would Beijing view a US-Russian rapprochement or a US disengagement from European security?
